✗ UnlikelyAARON
AARON
Nola
Hall of Fame Probability & HOF Score
Philadelphia Phillies·P·Age 33·12th Season
Last updated: September 23, 2026
HOF Score
22.6
/ 100
▲ +0 this season
SCORE Breakdown
5 DimensionsCareer Value30% weight
Milestone Progress25% weight
Awards & Selections20% weight
Peak Performance15% weight
Longevity10% weight
SCORE History
By Season616
917
1218
1419
1520
1621
1822
1923
2124
2225
2326
2016HOF Score by Season2026 ★ 23
WAR BY Season
2026
27 GP
2025
17 GP
2024
33 GP
2023
32 GP
2022
32 GP
2021
33 GP
2020
12 GP
2019
34 GP
2018
33 GP
MILESTONE Tracker
2,500 Strikeouts (P)2,029 / 2,500
~2029 season
150 Pitcher Wins114 / 150
2030 season
3,000 Strikeouts (P)2,029 / 3,000
2032 season
200 Pitcher Wins114 / 200
2036 season
250 Pitcher Wins114 / 250
2041 season
HALL OF FAME Comparisons
At Age 33| Player | WAR | W | ERA | Awards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Aaron Nola Active · 2026 | 0.0 | 114 | 3.920 | 0× MVP |
Nolan Ryan HOF · At age 32 | 52.6 | 0 | 3.08 | 0× MVP |
Tony Gwynn HOF · At age 32 | 54.8 | 0 | 0.00 | 0× MVP |
Willie Mays HOF · At age 32 | 79.4 | 0 | 0.00 | 2× MVP |
Hank Aaron HOF · At age 32 | 83.8 | 0 | 0.00 | 1× MVP |
Derek Jeter HOF · At age 32 | 55.4 | 0 | 0.00 | 0× MVP |
Cal Ripken Jr HOF · At age 32 | 77.8 | 0 | 0.00 | 2× MVP |
Frank Robinson HOF · At age 32 | 84.6 | 0 | 0.00 | 2× MVP |
Mike Schmidt HOF · At age 32 | 82.8 | 0 | 0.00 | 3× MVP |
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THE Verdict
Will Aaron Nola make the Hall of Fame?
Nola currently sits outside clear Hall of Fame consideration. An extended elite stretch — think multiple MVP-caliber seasons — would be needed to build a credible Cooperstown case.
What is Aaron Nola's HOF Score?
Aaron Nola's current HOF Score is 22.6 out of 100, placing them in the “✗ Unlikely” tier. The score is calculated from 5 dimensions: Career Value (30%), Milestone Progress (25%), Awards & Selections (20%), Peak Performance (15%), and Longevity (10%).